DEMOCRATIZATION

2021, VOL. 28, NO. 6, 1075–1094
https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2021.1881487

### Between elites and opposition: legislatures’ strength in authoritarian regimes


Felix Wiebrecht


Department of Government and Public Administration, The Chinese University of Hong Kong,
Sha Tin, Hong Kong


ARTICLE HISTORY Received 19 July 2020; Accepted 7 January 2021


KEYWORDS authoritarianism; legislatures; legislative strength; co-optation; power sharing; institutions


Introduction


Virtually all modern authoritarian regimes have legislatures and recent research has
convincingly argued that these are often more than mere “rubber stamps”. Instead,
they also contribute to regimes’ durability and economic growth. [1] However, just as
different kinds of authoritarian regimes diverge significantly from one another so do
their legislatures. [2] Country-specific evidence suggests that some of these legislatures
are appropriately classified as “rubber stamps”, while others are gradually gaining
more power. [3] There is considerable variation in the number of powers that authoritarian legislatures have at their disposal and this heterogeneity is also greater among
authoritarian regimes than amongst democracies. [4] The differences in legislative
strength across authoritarian regimes remain puzzling and deserve more scholarly
attention.


CONTACT Felix Wiebrecht [felix.wiebrecht@link.cuhk.edu.hk](mailto:felix.wiebrecht@link.cuhk.edu.hk)
[Supplemental data for this article can be accessed https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2021.1881487](https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2021.1881487)


© 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group


1076 F. WIEBRECHT


This article aims at filling this gap and investigates the relationships between legislative strength and important institutional characteristics of authoritarian regimes.
In accordance with both co-optation and power-sharing theories of authoritarian
institutions, the results highlight that three factors are particularly important in predicting legislative strength. These are a regime’s level of personalism, the presence of
an opposition in parliament, and the existence of elections. However, beyond these
factors, it appears that stronger legislatures are not generally associated with less
authoritarian control over legislative and electoral processes. These empirical
findings come with two key qualifications. For one, there are important differences
between de facto and de jure powers and secondly, the empirics also highlight
important historical differences. While more competitive elements are negatively
associated with legislative strength before 1990, this relationship cannot be established after the Cold War.
I provide empirical evidence for the effects of factors related to both power-sharing
and co-optation theory through a large-N cross-country study on authoritarian
regimes from 1946 to 2010. These results also carry practical implications with
them. For one, they highlight the vulnerability of authoritarian legislatures and
suggest that legislatures have been used as “bargaining chips” by dictators in exchange
for more contestation, particularly before 1990. The findings also paint a bleak picture
for voters in authoritarian regimes as supporting the opposition at the ballot box does
not generally correspond to stronger legislatures.
This article contributes to our understanding of authoritarian regimes in several
ways. First, it provides an original exploratory empirical analysis of legislative strength
in authoritarian regimes and thus, adds to earlier in-depth case studies of legislatures’
power. [5] By doing so, it highlights the applicability and suitability of previously devised
indices of legislative strength that allow for a comparative study of factors that predict
parliaments’ power. [6] Secondly, this study highlights that authoritarian legislatures are
shaped through different mechanisms that include elite-elite interactions, elite-society
interactions, and intra-parliamentary processes. Thirdly, this article adds a historical
dimension to our understanding of authoritarian institutions and draws attention to
significant differences between legislatures’ de jure and de facto powers in authoritarian regimes.
In the following, this article will introduce the dominant theoretical approaches to
legislatures in authoritarian regimes before highlighting the conceptualization of legislative strength. Subsequently, the article will introduce the empirical approach and
the findings.


Legislatures in authoritarian regimes


Initially, legislatures in authoritarian regimes have been decried as window-dressing
institutions and being merely of a ceremonial nature. [7] In this perspective, they
mainly provide a democratic façade but do not contribute significantly to policy- or
decision-making in dictatorships. However, more recent research has revealed how
legislatures enhance dictators’ rule in more substantive terms and also prolong authoritarian rule. [8] The two main mechanisms put forward concern rulers’ strategies of coopting opposition forces as well as sharing power among the elites. [9] In addition,
authoritarian legislatures fulfil further tasks for dictators such as information collection and transmission as well as being a useful scapegoat. [10]


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The co-optation approach holds that legislatures are created once dictators feel the
need to compromise with the opposition that poses a growing threat to their rule. [11]

Thus, dictators bargain over policies and offer concessions to the opposition in
order to stay in power. This approach holds that institutions are important since
they make the dictators’ claim to concessions credible. [12] However, this view is based
on the precondition that authoritarian legislatures are indeed meaningful actors in
policy-making processes. Without actual legislative power, they could hardly function
as co-optation mechanism and the opposition would continue to aim at overthrowing
the regime. [13] A dictator concerned with the opposition’s threat to his rule will have to
establish a legislature that possesses some legislative strength in order to convince the
opposition to work through parliamentary procedures. Thus, some of the dictator’s
powers will have to be delegated to the legislature.
While the co-optation approach is primarily focused on opposition forces, an
alternative stance sees authoritarian institutions as necessary to structure relations
among the elites. [14] Intra-elite conflicts are the more common threat for dictators
and thus, they need to devise credible strategies for power sharing. [15] Legislatures
provide a device through which dictator and elites can observe each other’s intentions
and reduce the information asymmetry between them. [16] The institutions are created in
order to safeguard a certain balance of power among the regime insiders and allow for
some intra-elite bargaining. [17] Power sharing may come in different forms such as
financial remuneration, natural resources, or influence over personnel decision and
policies. [18]

Recent contributions show that authoritarian legislatures can, in fact, be characterized by elite conflicts over divergent policy preferences. [19] Thus, a credible strategy of
power sharing also entails giving elites some influence over decision-making and aligning policies with their preferences may be an incentive for elites to remain loyal to the
dictator. In order to function as an effective and convincing power-sharing mechanism
then, legislatures in authoritarian regimes need to have some influence on policy
making and it is not enough for the dictator to establish a rubber stamp legislature.
Instead, it has to be one that also serves as a constraint for the dictator and divides
power between executive and legislature in order to qualify as a power-sharing
tool. [20] The next section will conceptualize legislative strength and highlight why it is
important to analyse it, particularly in authoritarian regimes.


Legislative strength


The conventional view of legislatures in authoritarian regimes as rubber stamp parliaments only applies to some of them. Other parliaments such as the Grand National
Assembly of Turkey for instance have been powerful even throughout the country’s
authoritarian periods. In yet other cases, the legislature was the highest organ of
state power constitutionally speaking but did not come close to this position in real
terms as in the Communist dictatorships of Central and Eastern Europe. Previous
studies have operationalized these differences between authoritarian legislatures in
relatively one-dimensional approaches. Gandhi, for instance, mainly distinguishes
between rubber stamp and strong legislatures that can serve the purpose of co-optation, while Wright draws a distinction between binding and non-binding legislatures. [21]

Yet, for our understanding of legislatures as well as authoritarianism more broadly
it is imperative to analyse the institutions’ strength in more detail. The existing


1078 F. WIEBRECHT


literature has predominantly focused on dictators’ rationale to establish institutions
such as parties and legislatures and their advantages to authoritarian rule. [22]

However, the number of authoritarian regimes with legislatures has increased steadily
to the point where virtually all of them have a legislature. Secondly, authoritarian rulers
that come to power often have to work with an existing institutional framework rather
than imposing completely new institutions. Thus, contemporary dictators are rarely
faced with the decision of whether to create a legislature or not.
However, all dictators face the task of shaping legislatures. For the institutional
configuration of an authoritarian regime, it is also crucial to understand what
powers institutions possess. Autocrats have to give some power to legislatures in particular, either to protect themselves against an elite rebellion or to appease an opposition. [23] However, seen from the dictators’ point of view, legislatures should also not be
overly powerful because that could severely constrain them and ultimately threaten
autocratic rule. Legislative strength then is the result of dictators’ delicate balancing
acts of trying to retain control while having to cede some power to the legislature.
For the wider study of authoritarian regimes, it is important to understand how dictators manage this act. Legislative strength highlights under what circumstances the
authoritarian ruler is willing to concede how much power to the legislature. Legislatures can be seen as “bargaining chips” and depending on threats emanating from
opposition or elites, rulers may respond by giving the legislature more authority, for
instance, in response to opposition gains or mass mobilizations. Alternatively, legislative strength can be seen as an outcome of power struggles in authoritarian regimes.
Recent studies based on legislatures’ historical development suggest that legislatures
become the primary institution for intra-elite struggle if the ruling party is weak
and that their development is contingent on whether and how the ruler interferes in
legislative processes. [24] Further empirical analyses will help to illustrate these
mechanisms.
Finally, legislative strength may also have implications for the study of authoritarian
regimes as an independent variable. Authoritarian legislatures generally are said to
contribute to regime durability, economic growth, and increasing citizen grievances. [25]

It will be worthwhile to assess the effects of legislatures with varying strengths on these
outcomes. For regime survival, in particular, conflicting expectations exist for strong
legislatures. On one hand, fulfilling their function as co-optation or power-sharing
mechanism is contingent on their strength. However, stronger legislatures potentially
also have a democratizing consequence. [26] In addition, stronger parliaments also lead to
legislative defeats for authoritarian rulers and, as a result, likely also shape a regime’s
public policies. [27] In a similar vein, legislative strength also “affects distributive outcomes” but with regressive rather than progressive implications. [28]

Analytically, scholars have made significant progress on the question of how to
operationalize legislative strength cross-nationally in recent years. Legislative strength
here refers to the accumulation (or absence) of different powers of legislatures vis-à-vis
the executive. The Parliamentary Powers Index (PPI) was a first step to create an index
of different powers to compare legislatures across regimes. [29] Subsequently, both the
Institutions and Elections Project (IAEP) as well as the Varieties of Democracy (VDem) Project have further improved the data availability. Finally, based on V-Dem
data, Wilson and Woldense have constructed an index of legislative powers that is
being used in this study as well. [30]


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This index contains de facto and de jure powers and can thus compose a good
balance between constitutionally safeguarded powers and expected powers. It is beneficial to include de facto powers in the index here even if they are based on hypothetical scenarios since constitutions may not unambiguously express all powers
conferred upon dictators and parliaments. [31] However, in authoritarian regimes the
danger looms large that constitutional prescriptions and practice do not match up
as in the case of parliaments in the Soviet Bloc that were often weak in practice but
the highest state organs according to their respective constitutions. In addition, the
strengthening and weakening of de facto and de jure powers may be results of distinct
underlying mechanisms. Thus, additional analyses distinguishing these two kinds of
powers are also essential. Table 1 shows all 16 indicators included in the index of legislative strength.
While Wilson and Woldense’s measurement has improved scholars’ ability to
compare legislatures across regimes, it does not come without potential caveats.
Regarding the selection of indicators, they have opted for items that were largely
also part of prior data collection efforts such as the PPI without “avoiding an overly

”
inclusive approach that mixes information that may only be marginally relevant . [32]

The index is mainly aimed at estimating the relative strength of the legislature vis-àvis the executive as this relationship is the most important dimension when assessing
legislative strength. [33] Thus, it is crucial to include these factors at the cost of neglecting
others such as the relation to the head of government and the cabinet. The V-Dem data
is particularly useful insofar as it specifies “upper and lower bounds on the point estimates calculated based on intercoder disagreement and measurement error” and thus,
helps to mitigate measurement error concerns. [34]

In addition to these points, this article would like to make another relevant potential
caveat explicit. The legislative powers included in the index are modelled after “idealtype” legislatures that can only be found in full democracies. However, authoritarian
legislatures often function differently and “serve distinctively authoritarian ends”. [35]

Authoritarian institutions may perform similar tasks, but they do so in order to contribute to authoritarian rule rather than to provide a democratic supplement. Examples
of this include the public oversight mechanisms in Vietnam ultimately aimed at evaluating government ministries not controlled by the Communist Party. [36] Oversight
mechanisms are also essential features of parliaments in full democracies but they
fulfil different functions in authoritarian regimes.
On the other hand, authoritarian legislatures may have distinct functions and
powers that are not captured by an index based on democratic ideal types. The


Table 1. Legislative strength index.


De jure powers De facto powers

Can introduce bills in all policy areas Opposition has oversight
Has to approve wars Legislates in practice
Has to approve treaties Regularly questions executive branch
Can grant amnesties Can investigate executive independently
Can amend constitution Controls financial resources for internal operations
Approval required to pass legislation Appoints Head of State (HOS)
Can remove HOS
HOS cannot dissolve legislature
HOS cannot propose legislation
HOS cannot veto


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Standing Committee of the Chinese National People’s Congress for instance has the
power of judicial interpretation including that of Hong Kong’s Basic Law. The separation of powers would prohibit parliaments in democracies to pass and interpret the
very same laws. Similarly, the People’s Chamber in the German Democratic Republic
had the formal power to decide on whether government or administration acted
unconstitutionally – a power usually reserved to constitutional courts in democracies.
Nevertheless, the abovementioned index still offers a valuable measurement also relevant to authoritarian regimes because it captures the most important dimension of
the legislature’s relation with the executive.
Although legislatures are essential for almost any political regime today, broadbased comparisons on their strength and powers are relatively limited. Across
regimes the level of democracy is generally a strong predictor of legislative strength [37]

but as Figure 1 shows the Polity score is only weakly correlated (r = 0.23) with the
amount of legislative powers in authoritarian regimes. This highlights the need for
more substantive explanations as to why authoritarian legislatures show significant
differences. The next section will highlight a number of relevant factors following
the abovementioned theoretical approaches to legislatures in authoritarian regimes.


Theoretical expectations


First, the role of an opposition in parliament is important. As mentioned above, legislatures established to co-opt opposition forces need to have certain powers granted to
them by the dictator that will persuade the opposition to work through the formal institutions. Being part of a legislature that has no substantive powers, that is, a rubber stamp
institution, is not attractive for the opposition since they ultimately want to change policies. [38] Therefore, following co-optation theory, authoritarian regimes with an opposition in parliament can be expected to have stronger legislatures because dictators aim to
incorporate regime adversaries into the regimes’ formal institutions.


Figure 1. Legislative powers and Polity score.


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However, the mere existence of an opposition may not illustrate the full picture
since in a number of authoritarian regimes the autonomy of the opposition is far
from guaranteed. In contrast, authoritarian regimes may also have an interest in permitting and even promoting a controlled opposition since it will add legitimacy to
nominally democratic procedures. [39] Thus, the co-optation mechanism may only
work as predicted when opposition parties are also autonomous from the authoritarian
elite. Only if they are independent from the regime, they can be a threat to the authoritarian rule and expect concessions from the dictator. If the opposition is not autonomous, the dictator has numerous other ways of influencing them. Thus, not only
the existence of opposition parties but also their independent status may be decisive
in predicting legislative strength.
In addition to the opposition, elections are potentially important factors associated
with legislative strength. Giving voters the choice among several candidates opens up
the opportunity for opposition forces to be selected as members of parliament. [40] As a
result of elections, the dictator may recognize the full strength of the opposition and
see himself in a position in which he needs to make concessions and give parliament
more power. Alternatively, elections are also used by authoritarian regimes in order to
devise a mechanism of “controlled” elite competition. [41] This can be an efficient system
for the regime to identify the most competent and loyal candidates. In turn, if the
regime wants to incentivize loyal and competent candidates to join parliament, the
institution itself also needs to have some power that can attract candidates.
Thus, if elections are used as a mechanism to decide upon the composition of the
parliament, the legislature can be expected to be stronger according to both
approaches. In order to disentangle these mechanisms, the nature of the elections
will be assessed as well. For the opposition to enter parliaments in larger numbers
the elections have to be open and competitive. Yet, some authoritarian regimes hold
elections but do not give voters the chance to choose one party over another. Thus,
elections that are more open to multiple parties can also be expected to allow for
more opposition and in turn, lead to a stronger legislature according to the co-optation
mechanism.
Alternatively, authoritarian regimes may also perceive competitive elections as a
threat. If the opposition can acquire a significant number of seats in a powerful parliament this could constrain authoritarian rule substantially and lay the basis for its end.
Thus, multi-party elections could also be negatively associated with legislative strength
since an authoritarian regime may only allow these when the legislature is weak. In
other words, legislatures could be used as “bargaining chips” to lower the stakes in
competitive elections. These opposing mechanisms will be explored by testing the
relationship between legislatures’ strength and elections’ competitiveness.
In addition to the existence of elections and opposition, it is necessary to assess the
latter’s strength and the threat it can present to the authoritarian ruler. An autonomous
but weak opposition does not pose a great menace to the dictator’s rule and is, therefore, not likely to force him to make concessions. Conversely, the stronger the opposition, the more likely the dictator will try to appease them and grant more powers to the
legislature in order to hold onto power according to co-optation theory. However, the
opposite mechanism is also conceivable, namely that as a result of the opposition’s
strength the dictator may curtail the powers that the legislature has. In this way, he
can minimize their impact on authoritarian rule and continue to govern without
constraints.


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An additional relevant factor for opening up political structures in authoritarian
regimes are candidate nomination procedures. In closed regimes, the candidate selection is one potential way of ensuring that the legislature can serve as an efficient powersharing mechanism. If the central party leadership has control over the candidate selection, they can safeguard that elite members from different factions can enter the parliament. Thus, a certain balance of power between them can be upheld and they can
utilize the legislature to resolve elite conflicts. Malesky and Schuler, for instance,
show the effects of differential processes of candidate selection in Vietnam. [42] If the
process of candidate nomination and selection is managed locally candidates that
are more critical of the regime can gain access to parliament and demand concessions,
for instance, in the form of constraining the dictator.
The need for power sharing is inherently expressed in a regime’s level of personalism. Strong personal leaders have less interest in power-sharing arrangements because
they already amassed far-reaching powers. In Svolik’s words, these are established
autocrats that “can no longer be credibly threatened by an allies’ rebellion” [43] as they
have already successfully managed to eliminate regime insiders’ ability to constrain
their rule. Essentially, a personalist authoritarian regime is one in which the dictator
has eradicated any formal or informal constraints on his power. [44] That is also why
they are relatively more threatened by popular uprisings than by “insider challenges”
such as coups. [45] A higher level of personalism is thus, expected to be a key factor
associated with legislative weakness.
In addition, party cohesion may be expected to play a role for legislative strength
because it describes individual delegates’ autonomy to push for legislative powers
and share power through legislative procedures. In order to facilitate power sharing
within a legislature, members of the elite require a certain degree of autonomy. If
elite members are bound too strictly by norms and rules there can be no efficient competition for influence and policies among them. [46] Thus, a lower party cohesion may be
expected to lead to stronger legislatures because only then can individual elite delegates
utilize the legislature as a power-sharing instrument. [47] However, on the other hand,
less party cohesion also signifies less control of the authoritarian regime over legislative
processes. This uncertainty may not be acceptable to authoritarian leaders and they
may only be willing to cede powers to the legislature when they have more control
over it. Due to these conflicting potential mechanisms the relationship between
party cohesion and legislative strength also needs to be examined.
The electoral systems in authoritarian regimes are further mechanisms affecting the
autonomy of delegates and, consequently, their ability to engage in elite bargaining
through the legislature. Majoritarian electoral systems tend to give the individual
members of parliament more autonomy than proportional representation in both
democracies and authoritarian regimes. [48] With more individual autonomy legislators
tend to engage in more intra-elite bargaining and ultimately have an interest in a stronger legislature that they can use to advance their interests. [49] As a result, majoritarian
systems are also expected to coincide with stronger legislatures.


Methodology


These relationships are tested using a large-N cross-sectional research design. This
study makes use of the Autocratic Regime Features Dataset (GWF) by Geddes et al.
that covers autocratic country-years for the period 1946–2010. [50] Since some variables


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suffer from missingness I make use of a set of imputed datasets for the analyses. For the
dependent variable, I follow Wilson and Woldense’s approach in constructing an index
of legislative strength. [51] All the above-mentioned indicators are accessible through the
V-Dem data [52] and they have been combined in an index counting the number of legislative powers with equal weighting. The descriptive statistics (in Tables 1 and 2 in
appendix) show that authoritarian legislatures on average possess 5 of these 16 powers.
The independent variables have been drawn from a variety of data sources but most
of them are taken from the widely used V-Dem Dataset such as the autonomy of the
opposition, the existence of elections, elections’ openness for multiparty competition,
the electoral system as well as the candidate selection procedures. As per V-Dem’s
methodological approach, most of these variables have either been coded by project
managers and research assistants or through a survey of country experts. The electoral
system has been transformed into an ordinal variable differentiating between majoritarian, mixed, and proportional systems. The V-Dem variable on candidate selection
captures a variety of different selection procedures that may have different implications. For the purposes of this study, it has been recoded into a binary variable assessing whether candidates are selected by the central party leadership or not.
To assess the existence of different political parties in authoritarian legislatures I am
relying on the Political Institutions and Political Events (PIPE) dataset. [53] Their
measurement originally distinguishes between parliaments with no, one, or more
than one political party. However, it has been recoded into a binary variable that captures whether a legislature houses an opposition or not. This aspect is of more importance for the purposes of this study than the question of whether any party is present in
the parliament.
While a direct measure of the opposition vote and seat share is available in the Database of Political Institutions, it suffers from a severe missingness problem. Instead, I
have made use of the vote share of the authoritarian incumbents as found in the VDem dataset. Thus, this study takes the inverse approach of estimating the strength
of the opposition through the results of the incumbents.
To assess the degree to which an authoritarian regime is personalized I utilize the
measure of personalism by Geddes et al. [54] Contrary to previous studies that have combined personalist dictatorships into a distinctive regime type, this study follows the
more recent approach to see personalism as a characteristic of any regime. [55] Military
regimes and single- or dominant-party regimes can also display high degrees of personalism such as China under Mao or Libya under Gaddafi. Importantly, the eight
indicators used to establish this personalism index do not cover dictators’ relations
with the legislature and thus, there is no risk of having both dependent and independent variables captured by the same measurement.
Authoritarian regimes differ significantly in a number of defining characteristics
such as openness, repression, and guarantee of personal and collective freedoms.
Thus, the most important control variable is the level of democracy. The Polity
scores have been utilized for all regimes in the given time period to control for the
level of democracy. In addition, the models control for countries’ GDP per capita,
whether an authoritarian regime was a democracy prior to the observed regimecase, the regime’s natural resources, and the duration of the autocratic spell. The
latter one as well as the GDP per capita are both logged. Data on whether the
regime was previously democratic, and the autocratic spell duration were taken


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from GWF while the data on natural resources and GDP per capita were taken from
Haber and Menaldo. [56]

To address the issue of autocorrelation of the standard errors and the slow-moving
character of the variables used in this analysis, I follow Beck and Katz’ suggestion of
fitting a dynamic model for time-series-cross-sectional data. Thus, all models
include the lagged dependent variable (LDV) at t − 1.


Empirical results


The analyses were conducted in two separate steps. While the first models show the
results for all authoritarian regimes with legislatures, the second step of the analysis
focuses on electoral dynamics and only includes dictatorships that also hold elections.
All following models were estimated using OLS regression models. The results for all
legislatures in authoritarian regimes are shown in Table 2.
The dependent variable in all models is the legislature’s score in the abovementioned index in any given country-year. Model 1 uses the existence of an opposition
in the legislature as one of the explanatory variables, while Model 2 examines the
autonomy of opposition parties. Both variables are included in Model 3. Model 4
adds the effects of elections on legislative strength.
In accordance with the theoretical expectations, these models highlight three main
aspects that are associated with the strength of legislatures in authoritarian regimes.
For one, they illustrate that the existence of an opposition in authoritarian parliaments
has a statistically significant positive effect on legislative strength. This finding corresponds to the effect of co-optation in dictatorships. Only legislatures that have some
influence over policy making can function as credible co-optation mechanism for
the opposition. Secondly, the existence of elections is also an important predictor of


Table 2. Analysis of all authoritarian regimes with legislatures, 1946–2010.


Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4


Opposition in Legislature 0.1810*** 0.2093*** 0.1760***
(0.0414) (0.0432) (0.0414)
Autonomy of opposition −0.0218 −0.0474*
(0.0187) (0.0193)
Personalism −.2088** −0.2283** −0.2046** −0.2478***

(0.0694) (0.0697) (0.0697) (0.0709)
Party Cohesion 0.0305 [†] 0.0272 0.0256 0.0333 [†]

(0.0171) (0.0174) (0.0174) (0.0172)

Elections 0.1520**

(0.0582)
Polity 0.0167*** 0.0274*** 0.0246*** 0.0158***
(0.0044) (0.0055) (0.0055) (0.0044)
GDP Log 0.1072* 0.1431** 0.1260* 0.0796
(0.0514) (0.0522) (0.0522) (0.0525)
Prior Democracy −0.0317 −0.0258 −0.0346 −0.0292
(0.0473) (0.0476) (0.0475) (0.0473)
Duration Log 0.0142 −0.0003 −0.0001 −0.0051
(0.0488) (0.0495) (0.0493) (0.0493)
Oil Income 7.59e [−][6] 2.16e [−][6] 3.46e [−][6] 8.89e [−][6]

(0.000011) (0.000011) (0.000011) (0.000011)
Legislative Powers t − 1 0.9085*** 0.9106*** 0.9089*** 0.9036***
(0.0081) (0.0081) (0.0081) (0.0083)
N 3173 3154 3154 3173


Note: [†] p < 0.1, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001, Standard errors in parentheses.


DEMOCRATIZATION 1085


legislative strength illustrated by the significant positive coefficient in Model 4. Legislatures in authoritarian regimes that hold elections have on average 0.15 powers more
than in regimes that do not hold elections.
As expected, personalism has a consistently strong and highly significant negative
effect throughout all models. The more powerful the dictator is in relative terms compared to other members of the elite, the less need he sees for a powerful legislature. In
extreme cases, these dictators have essentially eliminated every threat from their inner
circle and do not need to use legislatures as part of a power-sharing strategy. The
coefficients for party discipline are positive throughout all four models but fail to
reach high levels of significance. Model 2 and 3 also show that the autonomy of opposition parties does not contribute to legislative strength and instead is even associated
with weaker legislatures.
Turning to the control variables, a country’s Polity score is also a significant predictor
of the strength of its parliament although with a weaker magnitude than across all regime
types. [57] A higher GDP per capita also leads to stronger legislatures in most models which

–
is in line with modernization theory. According to the results of Models 1 4, greater
income from oil is not significantly linked to either stronger or weaker legislatures.
Prior research found no evidence that natural resources are necessarily a curse and lead
to authoritarian regimes. [58] In turn, they may also not necessarily lead to weaker legislatures as the findings of this study suggest. The results can also not establish with certainty
whether authoritarian regimes that follow democracies tend to have weaker legislatures.
The second step of the analysis sheds more light on the dynamics that elections
bring into the functioning of legislatures in authoritarian regimes as shown in Table
3. The existence of an opposition in the legislature remains a strong predictor of legislative strength and significant throughout all models. The level of personalism retains
its significance in Models 5 and 6 but is only significant on the p < 0.1 level in the last
two models. The results also show that vote and seat shares for the authoritarian
incumbents fail to have a significant effect on legislatures’ strength. Contrary to cooptation theory, more open elections cannot be associated with stronger legislatures.
In fact, the opposite appears to be the case. Elections in authoritarian regimes that
are more open to multiple parties are linked to weaker legislatures. Regarding the candidate selection processes, the electoral systems as well as the levels of party cohesion,
no significant relationships to legislative strength can be established.
Overall, these results highlight that the level of personalism, the presence of an
opposition in parliament, and the existence of elections are important predictors of
legislative strength. However, beyond these factors, it appears that stronger legislatures
are not generally associated with less authoritarian control over legislative and electoral
processes. This is mainly captured by the negative effect of more open and competitive

–
elections (Models 5 8). Yet, the absence of significant results for party cohesion, seat
and vote shares, as well as candidate selection procedures, point towards the same conclusion. In the following, further analyses will explore differences between de facto and
de jure powers and historical differences in order to highlight the contexts under which
these findings remain valid.


De jure vs. De facto powers


In authoritarian regimes, de jure legislative powers may not necessarily reflect the
actual legislative powers. The parliament of the German Democratic Republic, for


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Table 3. Analysis of authoritarian regimes with legislatures and elections, 1946–2010.


Model 5 Model 6 Model 7 Model 8



Opposition in Legislature 0.2100*** 0.2768*** 0.2960*** 0.2887***
(0.0484) (0.0548) (0.0564) (0.0566)
Seat Share −0.0003

(0.0012)
Vote Share 0.0008 0.0012 0.0012

(0.0014) (0.0015) (0.0015)
Multiparty Election −0.1053*** −0.0905** −0.0940** −0.0877**
(0.0227) (0.0278) (0.0284) (0.0287)
Electoral System −0.0148 −0.0207
(0.0313) (0.0315)
Candidate Selection 0.0957

(0.0618)
Personalism −0.2270** −0.1695* −0.1572 [†] −0.1683 [†]

(0.0784) (0.0853) (0.0880) (0.0883)

Party Cohesion 0.0135 −0.0092 −0.0202 −0.0229
(0.0229) (0.0258) (0.0276) (0.0276)
Oil Income 0.000018 2.89e [−][7] −1.09e [−][6] −2.93e [−][6]

(0.000038) (0.000046) (0.000046) (0.000046)
Polity 0.0356*** 0.0311*** 0.0321*** 0.0351***
(0.0062) (0.0068) (0.0069) (0.0072)
GDP Log 0.0833 0.1743* 0.1587* 0.1616*
(0.0643) (0.0750) (0.0763) (0.0763)
Prior Democracy 0.0226 −0.0225 −0.0208 −0.0109
(0.0529) (0.0577) (0.0600) (0.0604)
Duration Log −0.0128 −0.0231 −0.0172 0.0036
(0.0.0592) (0.0670) (0.0705) (0.0718)
Legislative Powers (t − 1) 0.8986*** 0.8822*** 0.8852*** 0.8822***
(0.0095) (0.0110) (0.0113) (0.0115)
N 2439 2094 1958 1958


Note: [†] p < 0.1, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001, Standard errors in parentheses.


instance, was denoted as the highest state organ in the constitution but in practice, its
powers were very limited. Not only are de facto and de jure powers not necessarily consistent in authoritarian regimes but their strengthening and weakening may also follow
different logics that warrant additional analyses. This is particularly important since de
facto powers appear slightly more volatile than de jure powers. A count of the changes
in legislative powers in the dataset reveals that de facto powers have changed in 437
country-years, while de jure powers have only changed in 397 instances. Figure 2 highlights Model 8 introduced above complemented with the autonomy of the opposition
in order to highlight the complete set of significant variables. The de facto and de jure
powers at t − 1 are included in the models as respective lagged variables but not shown
in Figure 2.

Figure 2 highlights that the existence of an opposition is conducive to more de jure
and de facto powers whereas the oppositions’ autonomy has negative effects on de jure
powers. Furthermore, multi-party elections are detrimental to de jure powers on a p <
0.1 level but do not have a significant relationship to de facto powers. The opposite is
the case for the level of personalism as more personalist dictators are associated with
less de facto legislative powers on a p < 0.1 level. In addition, the higher the party cohesion, the less de facto powers an authoritarian legislature has. The polity score is also a
stronger indicator for de facto powers rather than de jure ones. The regime duration
has differential effects on legislatures. While legislatures tend to have significantly more
de facto power in long-lasting regimes, they also appear to have significantly less de


DEMOCRATIZATION 1087


Figure 2. Analysis of all authoritarian regimes with legislatures and elections, de jure and de facto powers.


jure powers. This points towards the importance of legislatures in enhancing and
prolonging authoritarian rule. [59]

Although most of the coefficients fail to reach significance in relation to both de
facto and de jure legislative powers they nevertheless reveal some dynamics at play.
Some competitive or even “liberalizing” elements are associated with less de jure
powers such as the autonomy of the opposition and the openness of elections. This
stands in contrast to variables that highlight more authoritarian control but are
linked to less de facto legislative powers. These include the level of personalism as
well as the level of party cohesion. Thus, there is some evidence to suggest that stronger
de facto legislatures are to be found in authoritarian regimes with at least some political
competition.
In addition to the low significance levels, the analysis of de facto legislative powers
comes with another potential caveat. When deciding on the de facto legislative
powers V-Dem coders may potentially be influenced by the legislatures’ open- and
competitiveness, for instance, characterized by the strength and nature of the opposition. However, the analysis here shows that some variables related to the opposition
do not yield positive results. In particular, the autonomy of an opposition does not
generate a significant result for de facto powers. The vote and seat shares of the
authoritarian incumbent also remain insignificant highlighting that the oppositions’
mere electoral strength is also not linked to legislative strength. Thus, the potential
coding caveat does not appear to pose a general concern in this analysis. In addition
to de facto and de jure powers, the following section will also analyse historical
differences.


1088 F. WIEBRECHT


Historical differences


The nature of authoritarian regimes has changed significantly from the totalitarian
model of the inter-war dictatorships in Europe to today’s more common form of competitive authoritarianism. [60] The end of the Cold War was a major turning point in
recent history and has led to the demise of many authoritarian regimes but enabled
new forms of competitive authoritarianism to flourish. These differences are also noteworthy when it comes to predicting legislative strength in authoritarian regimes.
Authoritarian regimes in the post-Cold War era are more open in that they tolerate
more competition in the formal political arena. Yet, they remain authoritarian regimes
because “the playing field is heavily skewed in favor of incumbents”. [61] This development is for instance embodied through the increased use of legislatures and elections
that are also open to opposition. The average seat shares of authoritarian incumbents
as shown in Figure 3 highlight this development. These changes are also similar when
communist regimes are excluded (Figure 3 in appendix).
The historical differences are shown in Figure 4 below highlighting the results of the
LDV model. First, the magnitude of the effect that an opposition has on legislative
strength is smaller in the post-1990 era. This is due to the fact that an increasing
number of authoritarian regimes have opened their legislatures to opposition actors.
With more authoritarian legislatures including opposition parties, it is to be expected
that their presence loses some of its explanatory power. However, in the post-Cold
War era, the autonomy of the opposition appears to be associated with stronger legislatures while the opposite was the case before 1990. In addition, the level of personalism is significant (p < 0.1) in both models but more so before 1990. The central


Figure 3. Average seat share of authoritarian incumbents, 1946–2010.


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Figure 4. Analysis of authoritarian regimes with elections, before and after 1990.


candidate selection is associated with stronger legislatures until 1990 but not after that.
Competitive multi-party elections are only associated with weaker legislatures before
1990 but are not significant after the Cold War. While a higher vote share for the
incumbents is conducive and significant for legislative strength before 1990, it is not
significant after that anymore.
Overall, the main factors of personalism and the existence of an opposition remain
significant in both historical periods. However, beyond these factors more authoritarian control over legislative and electoral processes appears to go hand in hand with
more legislative strength before 1990. A centralized candidate selection and less competitive elections are signs of this connection for instance. However, after 1990 some of
these aspects lose their significance such as elections’ competitive character or are even
detrimental to legislative strength. A more autonomous opposition, for instance, tends
to be associated with stronger legislatures after 1990. Thus, the baseline findings appear
to mainly describe pre-1990 authoritarian regimes but do not necessarily relate to
more modern authoritarian regimes.


Robustness tests


In order to validate the reliability of the above findings, this study has also conducted
further robustness tests. First, tests for multicollinearity appear unproblematic in all
analyses. Secondly, as pointed out above, some of the variables had to be imputed in
order to account for a high level of missingness. The results for the non-imputed
dataset are shown in the appendix (Tables 3 and 4) and are generally in line with
the results presented here.


1090 F. WIEBRECHT


In addition, some control variables such as the oil income, the regime duration, and
whether the regimes succeed democracies are far from being significant and show
small effect magnitudes. In order to avoid the potential danger of model overspecification, I have also conducted the same analyses without these variables (Tables 5 and 6 in
appendix). The results for the variables of interest remain largely unchanged both in
terms of significance and effect magnitudes.
Furthermore, some variables have been replaced with alternative measurements.
Further analyses have utilized a country’s total resource income rather than the oil
income (Tables 7 and 8 in appendix). In an additional robustness test, the latent
measure of personalism has been replaced by Geddes’ (1999) original typology to
see whether personalist regimes are also linked to weaker legislatures. While the magnitudes are slightly weaker for personalist regimes the overall effects remain robust
(Tables 9 and 10 in appendix).
In addition, the historical differences could be driven by the collapse of many communist regimes with similar institutional makeup around the same time. However,
excluding them from the analysis does not yield substantively different results
(Figures 1 and 2 in appendix). The trend of declining seat shares of the authoritarian
incumbents is also apparent when excluding communist regimes (Figure 3 in
appendix).


Discussion and conclusion


This article has offered an empirical analysis of the factors that are linked to legislatures’ strength in authoritarian regimes. It provides empirical evidence for the
effects of factors related to both power-sharing and co-optation theory through a
large-N cross-country study on authoritarian regimes from 1946 to 2010. The results
show that three factors are critical for legislative strength, namely the level of personalism and the existence of an opposition and elections. However, beyond these factors,
it appears that authoritarian regimes that have more control over legislative and electoral processes are associated with more powerful legislatures. Yet, these findings seem
to apply primarily to the time period before 1990. For regimes after that and for de
facto legislative powers stronger legislatures tend to coexist with more competitive
mechanisms and less authoritarian control over electoral and legislative processes.
The results highlight how different institutions go hand in hand in authoritarian
regimes and suggest that legislatures have been used as essential “bargaining chips”
for dictators in the past. When a dictator had relatively little control over electoral
and legislative outcomes, legislatures also tended to be weaker. In other words, dictators could afford to have less control over legislative processes when the stakes, that is,
the strength of the legislature, were lower. For de facto powers and also the historical
period after the end of the Cold War the reverse appears to be the case. These findings
are closer in line with expectations from the general literature, namely that more competitive processes strengthen political institutions. [62] Consequently, as a dictator has
less control over elections and legislative outcomes the legislature is generally also
stronger. These results also echo some recent findings from Africa that highlight
less party cohesion and less dictatorial meddling in legislative processes as important
factors for legislative development in authoritarian regimes. [63]

These findings demonstrate the changing nature of parliaments in authoritarian
regimes in the post-Cold War era. After the Cold War, legislatures have become a


DEMOCRATIZATION 1091


place for more contestation between incumbents and opposition for instance illustrated by the decline of the authoritarian incumbents’ seat and vote shares. Thus,
some mechanisms primarily related to power sharing appear to be less important in
the post-1990 authoritarian legislature. For instance, personalism and the central candidate selection have a smaller effect magnitude or lose their significance. Before 1990,
authoritarian legislatures were less competitive and many of them were only filled with
members of the ruling elite. However, in more recent years legislatures include more
members of the opposition as well and these factors tend to have less impact on
legislatures.
There are several avenues for future research to build upon the findings of this article.
First of all, scholars should disentangle some of the relationships found in this article and
highlight deeper causal mechanisms between the different variables. Secondly, as prior
case studies have pointed out that legislative strength also has effects in itself future
research should investigate these effects on a more comparative basis. Several research
questions on the consequences of differences in legislative strength may be worth pursuing. For instance, do stronger legislatures generally strengthen dictatorial rule or do
they, in contrast, contribute to democratization? Prior research has highlighted that legislatures encourage citizens to voice their grievances in authoritarian regimes and thus,
may set in motion democratizing processes. [64] In addition, it may be worthwhile to
analyse the redistributive consequences of stronger legislatures across regimes and
policy outcomes in authoritarian regimes more broadly.


Notes


1. Gandhi, Political Institutions; Wright, “Do Authoritarian Institutions Constrain.”
2. Geddes, “Democratization After Twenty Years.”
3. Adiputri, “Empowerment of Parliament”; Egreteau, “Towards Legislative Institutionalisation.”
4. Wilson and Woldense, “Contested or Established?”
5. Bonvecchi and Simison, “Legislative Institutions and Performance.”
6. Wilson and Woldense, “Contested or established.”
7. Brancati, “Democratic Authoritarianism.”
8. Gandhi and Przeworski, “Cooperation, Cooptation and Rebellion.”
9. Gandhi, Political Institutions; Svolik, Politics of Authoritarian Rule.
10. Truex, Making Autocracy Work; Manion, Information for Autocrats; Williamson and Magaloni, “Legislatures and Policymaking.”
11. Gandhi, Political Institutions.
12. Wright and Escribá-Folch, “Authoritarian Institutions.”
13. Bonvecchi and Simison, “Legislative Institutions and Performance”; Koeker, “Why Dictators
Veto.”
14. Svolik, “Power Sharing.”
15. Grundholm, “Taking it Personal”; Magaloni, “Credible Power-sharing.”
16. Svolik, “Politics of Authoritarian Rule.”
17. Boix and Svolik, “Foundations of Limited Authoritarian.”
18. Truex, “The Returns to Office”; Lust-Okar, “Elections under authoritarianism.”
19. Noble, “Authoritarian Amendments”; Lü, Liu, and Li, “Policy Coalition Building.”
20. Bonvecchi and Simison, “Legislative Institutions and Performance.”
21. Gandhi, Political Institutions; Wright, “Do Authoritarian Institutions Constrain.”
22. Brownlee, Authoritarianism; Gandhi, Political Institutions.
23. Opalo, Legislative Development in Africa.
24. Collord, “Political Economy of Institutions”; Opalo, Legislative Development in Africa.
25. Gandhi, Political Institutions; Wright, “Do Authoritarian Institutions Constrain”; Woo and
Conrad, “Differential Effects.”


1092 F. WIEBRECHT


26. Opalo, Legislative Development in Africa.
27. Bonvecchi and Simison, “Legislative Institutions and Performance.”
28. Collord, “Political Economy of Institutions,” 14.
29. Fish and Kroenig, Handbook of National Legislatures.
30. Wilson and Woldense, “Contested or Established?”
31. Ibid.

32. Ibid., 590.
33. Bonvecchi and Simison, “Legislative Institutions and Performance.”
34. Wilson and Woldense, “Contested or Established,” 590.
35. Gandhi, Noble, and Svolik, “Legislatures and Legislative Politics,” 3.
36. Schuler, “Position Taking.”
37. Fish, “Stronger Legislatures, Stronger Democracies.”
38. Gandhi, Political Institutions.
39. Albrecht, “Opposition Support Authoritarianism.”
40. Malesky and Schuler, “Nodding or Needling.”
41. Blaydes, Elections and Distributive Politics; Koehler, “Authoritarian Elections in Egypt.”
42. Malesky and Schuler, “Nodding or Needling.”
43. Svolik, Politics of Authoritarian Rule, 55.
44. Geddes, Wright, and Frantz, How Dictatorships Work.
45. Grundholm, “Taking it Personal”; Roessler, “The Enemy Within.”
46. Opalo, Legislative Development in Africa.
47. Collord, “Political Economy of Institutions.”
48. Stratmann and Baur, “Plurality Rule, Proportional Representation”; Krol, “Amending
Legislatures.”
49. Collord, “Political Economy of Institutions.”
50. Geddes, Wright, and Frantz, How Dictatorships Work.
51. Wilson and Woldense, “Contested or Established?”
52. Coppedge et al., V-Dem Codebook v8.
53. Przeworski, Political Institutions and Political Events.
54. Geddes, Wright, and Frantz, How Dictatorships Work.
55. Geddes, “Democratization After Twenty Years”; Grundholm, “Taking it Personal.”
56. Haber and Menaldo, “Natural Resources.”
57. Fish and Kroenig, “Handbook of National Legislatures.”
58. Haber and Menaldo, “Natural Resources.”
59. Gandhi, Political Institutions.
60. Howard and Roessler, “Liberalizing Electoral Outcomes”; Levitsky and Way, Competitive
Authoritarianism.
61. Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism, 5.
62. Mayhew, Congress; Ferejohn, “Incumbent Performance.”
63. Collord, “Political Economy of Institutions”; Opalo, Legislative Development in Africa.
64. Woo and Conrad, “Differential Effects of ‘Democratic’ Institutions.”


Acknowledgements


The author wishes to thank Chen Xi, Pierre F. Landry, James F. Downes, Zheng Ruoting and two
anonymous reviewers for comments and suggestions for revising the manuscript.


Disclosure statement


No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).


Notes on contributor


Felix Wiebrecht is a PhD Candidate in the Department of Government and Public Administration at
The Chinese University of Hong Kong. His research interests include authoritarianism, legislatures,
and consultative institutions.


DEMOCRATIZATION 1093


ORCID


Felix Wiebrecht [http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9159-5024](http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9159-5024)


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