When Autocratization is Reversed: Episodes of Democratic Turnarounds since 1900
Nord, M., Angiolillo, F., Lundstedt, M., Wiebrecht, F., and Lindberg, S.I. (2025)
Democratization
The world is in a “wave of autocratization.” Yet, recent events in Brazil, the Maldives, and Zambia demonstrate that autocratization can be halted and reversed. This article introduces “U-Turn” as a new type of regime transformation episode in which autocratization is closely followed by and linked to subsequent democratization. Drawing on earlier literature, it provides a general conceptualization and operationalization of this type of episode, complementing the existing Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) framework. The accompanying database provides descriptions for all 102 U-Turn episodes from 1900 to 2023, differentiating between three types: authoritarian manipulation, democratic reaction, and international intervention. The analysis presents a systematic empirical overview of patterns and developments of U-Turns. A key finding is that 52% of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73% when focusing on the last 30 years. The vast majority of U-Turns (90%) lead to restored or even improved levels of democracy. The data on U-Turn episodes opens up new avenues for research on autocratization and democratization that were previously treated as isolated processes, particularly it could help us understand why some processes of autocratization trigger a successful pro-democratic backlash – a critical question during the starkest-ever wave of autocratization.
What benefits do inclusive institutions have for authoritarian rulers? Previous research studied delegate behavior in authoritarian institutions but has been less well-equipped to assess government reactions to it. Analyzing the case of a People’s Political Consultative Conference in China, I argue that an overlooked key benefit of inclusive institutions is their provision of expertise. Drawing on novel data spanning more than 9,000 policy suggestions submitted by delegates, their biographies, and the corresponding government responses, I illustrate that the government overall values suggestions that signal expertise. While this is especially true for departments of a more technocratic nature, I also find that members of the institutional leadership are favored systematically. These findings provide an important addition to our understanding of the role of authoritarian institutions in policy-making processes.
Prompting officials’ innovation willingness is a prerequisite for processes of public sector innovation. This article constructs a framework explaining officials’ innovation willingness by linking environmental antecedents and path dependence. The empirical analysis, based on an original survey of 403 officials and interviews with 102 officials in China, shows that their innovation willingness is mostly driven by factors within the bureaucratic system, i.e. top-down and horizontal drivers but less so by bottom-up drivers. Moreover, officials with previous innovation experience tend to have more innovation willingness but are less driven by top-down factors. This study advances the theory of innovation willingness generation.
Work in Progress
The House Approves: Policy Outcomes are Better Explained by Legislatures’ Positions Than by Executives’ Preferences (Under Review)
(with Fabio Angiolillo)
Authoritarian Party Building, Elites’ Retention, and the Effects on Clientelism
(with Fabio Angiolillo)
Parliamentary Elites in Authoritarian Regimes: New Data
Higher Education Expansion Under Authoritarianism: Evidence from Turkey
(with Ozlem Tuncel)